Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

1:5

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

WBSTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.62.2
High danger: 32
Chances: 105
Shots: 3333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances2

2.62Expected goals2.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.8
2nd	14–7	7–2	2–1	1.5–0.6
3rd	9–13	1–2	0–1	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	3	4:13 of the 3rd	15:47	15:47	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: -2.82

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: +1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:37Penalty
1st 15:26Penalty
2nd 5:19Penalty
2nd 6:22Mikhail Ilyin (1–0)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 7:11Landon Sim (1–1)low · 65 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 8:15Penalty
2nd 13:54Penalty
2nd 14:21Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–2)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 2:57Easton Cowan (1–3)low · 49 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 4:13Logan Shaw (1–4)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 11:03Penalty
3rd 11:03Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 14:59Penalty
3rd 14:59Penalty
3rd 14:59Penalty
3rd 16:26Marshall Rifai (1–5)empty net · low · 183 ft · beat Sergei Murashov